Economies

Talking about Japanese equities, 2016 can be divided in two timeframes. Firstly, there was the period from the start of 2016 until roughly July during which financials heavily underperformed, exacerbated by the Bank of Japan’s Negative Interest Rate Policy. Then there was the sudden trend, which began in the summer,… Read More »

The current valuation of A-shares is determined by 3 driving forces: …. 1). short-term economic stabilization, improved earnings of enterprises 2). marginal tightening of liquidity though overall volume is relatively loose 3). progress in domestic supply side reforms and state-owned enterprise reforms reinstate risk appetite to a certain extent. The… Read More »

Global political uncertainly has been plaguing investors around the world for months. With the UK Brexit vote behind us, attention now turns to the US presidential election When I survey the current investment landscape, I’m struck by the fact that two things are driving financial markets today: central bank policies… Read More »

Emerging market equities are Candriam’s strongest regional overweight conviction, …. … as (a) they have the highest re-rating potential (with a still-attractive relative valuation), (b) economic growth is stabilising and (c) the scope of USD appreciation is limited. However, central bank uncertainties and a less supportive commodity environment than at… Read More »

HSBC’s outlook for the European economies divides into the short term, where a modest recovery is expected to continue, and the longer term, where the challenges are becoming ever more stark. In the short term, the impact of the UK’s Brexit vote has not been as severe as initially feared;… Read More »

A strong domestic economy and a government hungry for market reform makes Indonesia a stand-out market on the global stage. With developed markets battling deflation and Chinese growth decelerating due to past investment and excesses, Indonesia stands out as a strong economy supported by domestic factors. While many developed economies… Read More »

The impeachment of Dilma Rousseff had been widely expected. The prospects for Brazilian assets now rest on economic fundamentals and muchneeded reforms. With a greater-than-expected majority, Brazil’s Senate voted to impeach President Dilma Rousseff, removing her from office after her suspension in May. Rousseff is replaced as president by Michel… Read More »

How long will it take for the country to find a credible solution and will it be sufficient? After an already disastrous start to the year, Italian banks plunged 30% following the Brexit vote. Obviously there is no direct link between Brexit and Italy, but the uncertainty of the UK… Read More »

Probably the single most contentious debate in emerging markets is the debate over the future of China. Views range from China’s economy being caricatured as a bubble, pumped up by excess debt and an investment-driven bubble in infrastructure and real estate, to those who believe the outlook is much more… Read More »

The Japanese economy is deteriorating and the inflation target looks out of reach. Inflation is falling back into negative territory and core CPI has decreased to 0.6%, a long way from the 2% target. Looking at household and corporate expectations, the situation there is also deteriorating. Confidence indicators have worsened… Read More »